Estimate of the rate of unreported COVID-19 cases during the first outbreak in Rio de Janeiro.
Infect Dis Model
; 7(3): 317-332, 2022 Sep.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1907104
ABSTRACT
In this work we fit an epidemiological model SEIAQR (Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Asymptomatic - Quarantined - Removed) to the data of the first COVID-19 outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Particular emphasis is given to the unreported rate, that is, the proportion of infected individuals that is not detected by the health system. The evaluation of the parameters of the model is based on a combination of error-weighted least squares method and appropriate B-splines. The structural and practical identifiability is analyzed to support the feasibility and robustness of the parameters' estimation. We use the Bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of the estimates. For the outbreak of March-July 2020 in Rio de Janeiro, we estimate about 90% of unreported cases, with a 95% confidence interval (85%, 93%).
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
Language:
English
Journal:
Infect Dis Model
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.idm.2022.06.001
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