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The effectiveness of various control strategies: An insight from a comparison modelling study.
Zhou, Weike; Bai, Yao; Tang, Sanyi.
  • Zhou W; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, PR China.
  • Bai Y; Department of Infection Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Xi'an 710043, PR China.
  • Tang S; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, PR China. Electronic address: sytang@snnu.edu.cn.
J Theor Biol ; 549: 111205, 2022 09 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1907378
ABSTRACT
Several local outbreaks have occurred and been suppressed with the dynamic zero-COVID policy and widely promoted vaccination program implemented in China. The epidemic duration and final size vary significantly in different cities, which may be attributed to different implementation patterns and intensities of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). It's important to capture the underlying mechanism to explore more efficient implementation patterns of NPIs in order to prevent the future resurgence. In this study, outbreaks caused by Delta variant in Xi'an, Yangzhou and Guangzhou in 2021 are chosen as the examples. A novel model dividing the population into three groups is proposed to describe the heterogeneity of control interventions. The model is calibrated and key parameters related to NPIs are estimated by using multi-source epidemic data. The estimation results show a lower transmission probability but a higher initial reproduction number in Xi'an. Sensitivity analysis are conducted to investigate the impact of various control measures in different epidemic phases. The results identify the vital role of enhancing closed-off management, strengthening tracing and testing intensities, on shortening the epidemic durations and reducing the final size. Further, we find that sufficiently implemented closed-off management would prevent the city from lockdown. Strengthening the tracing other than the testing strategy in the initial stage is more effective on containing the epidemic in a shorter duration with less infections.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: J Theor Biol Year: 2022 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: J Theor Biol Year: 2022 Document Type: Article