Air transportation as a puzzle piece of COVID-19 in Africa?

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 has hit our society hard, with more than 242 million cases reported worldwide and more than 4.9 million directly related fatalities. The role of Africa throughout the pandemic has been puzzling, since the African continent seems to have gone through the pandemic better than other continents;clearly better than predicted by the public during the emergence of COVID-19 one year ago. While several factors have been proposed in the literature to explain the unexpected role of Africa, including a relatively young population, more historical driven preparedness to other types of coronavirus and diseases, and a limited amount of testing, the puzzle is not considered to be solved. In this study, we aim to answer the question whether air transportation indicators can support us in explaining the evolution of COVID-19 in Africa? Using flight data for the year 2020, we explore how changes in the air transportation system correlate with evolution of epidemiological indicators. Our results suggest that air transportation could indeed play a critical role for the spread of COVID-19 in Africa as well. Overall, we hope that our analysis contributes towards a better understanding of COVID-19 and the role air transportation plays in an under-researched region of the world.