Research on Supply and Demand of Aged Services Resource Allocation in China: A System Dynamics Model

ABSTRACT

With the rapid growth of the elderly population of China in recent years, the service demands of older Chinese people continue to increase. The increasingly severe situation with respect to the elderly population is an important social problem that China will face for a long time into the future. It is urgent to solve the problem of how to scientifically carry out allocation planning of service resources for the aged and guide the effective supply of service resources. This paper analyzes the factors affecting service resources for the aged, divides China’s service resource supply and demand system into a supply subsystem, a demand subsystem, and a population and economy subsystem. Using system dynamics methods to analyze the causal relationship between variables and the state space method to build a mathematical model and perform simulation analysis, we research the the current situation of China’s service resources supply and demand balance for the aged. In addition, we put forward resource configuration optimization measures for the future allocation of service resources for the aged, providing a practical basis for future decision-making.