Tracing out the effect of transportation infrastructure on NO2 concentration levels with Kernel Density Estimation by investigating successive COVID-19-induced lockdowns.

ABSTRACT

This study aims to investigate the effect of transportation infrastructure on the decrease of NO2 air pollution during three COVID-19-induced lockdowns in a vast region of France. For this purpose, using Sentinel-5P satellite data, the relative change in tropospheric NO2 air pollution during the three lockdowns was calculated. The estimation of regional infrastructure intensity was performed using Kernel Density Estimation, being the predictor variable. By performing hotspot-coldspot analysis on the relative change in NO2 air pollution, significant spatial clusters of decreased air pollution during the three lockdowns were identified. Based on the clusters, a novel spatial index, the Clustering Index (CI) was developed using its Coldspot Clustering Index (CCI) variant as a predicted variable in the regression model between infrastructure intensity and NO2 air pollution decline. The analysis revealed that during the three lockdowns there was a strong and statistically significant relationship between the transportation infrastructure and the decline index, CCI (r = 0.899, R2 = 0.808). The results showed that the largest decrease in NO2 air pollution was recorded during the first lockdown, and in this case, there was the strongest inverse correlation with transportation infrastructure (r = -0.904, R2 = 0.818). Economic and population predictors also explained with good fit the decrease in NO2 air pollution during the first lockdown GDP (R2 = 0.511), employees (R2 = 0.513), population density (R2 = 0.837). It is concluded that not only economic-population variables determined the reduction of near-surface air pollution but also the transportation infrastructure. Further studies are recommended to investigate other pollutant gases as predicted variables.