Assessing the Accuracy of National Population Projections: A Case Study of Norway
Finnish Yearbook of Population Research
; 56:31-63, 2021.
Article
in English
| ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1918979
ABSTRACT
Few producers of official population projections provide regular evaluations ofpast projection inaccuracies. This paper assesses deviations between the projected and registered total population for Norway (1996-2018), as well as deviations in the age structure, total fertility rate and number of births, period life expectancy at birth and number of deaths, and net international migration. Projected life expectancy was consistently lower than the real development. Few systematic deviations were observed for fertility up to 2009, but thereafter fertility has been consistently overprojected. However, the deviations between projected and realised trends in births and deaths have been relatively small as compared to those for net international migration. The projections produced between 1996-2005 underestimated long-term population growth due primarily to the unforeseen increase in immigration following EU expansion in 2004. More recent projections contain no consistent under- or overprojection of net migration and the deviations for the total population have been moderate.
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Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
ProQuest Central
Type of study:
Case report
Language:
English
Journal:
Finnish Yearbook of Population Research
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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