Assessing the potential impact of immunity waning on the dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa: an endemic model of COVID-19.
Nonlinear Dyn
; 109(1): 203-223, 2022.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1919897
ABSTRACT
We developed an endemic model of COVID-19 to assess the impact of vaccination and immunity waning on the dynamics of the disease. Our model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation and bi-stability, where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium. The epidemiological implication of this is that the control reproduction number being less than unity is no longer sufficient to guarantee disease eradication. We showed that this phenomenon could be eliminated by either increasing the vaccine efficacy or by reducing the disease transmission rate (adhering to non-pharmaceutical interventions). Furthermore, we numerically investigated the impacts of vaccination and waning of both vaccine-induced immunity and post-recovery immunity on the disease dynamics. Our simulation results show that the waning of vaccine-induced immunity has more effect on the disease dynamics relative to post-recovery immunity waning and suggests that more emphasis should be on reducing the waning of vaccine-induced immunity to eradicate COVID-19.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
Topics:
Vaccines
Language:
English
Journal:
Nonlinear Dyn
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S11071-022-07225-9
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