Study on Forecasting Model of Port Container Throughput in China

ABSTRACT

The new corona pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic is still spreading globally. The critical role of ports in the global economy and logistics system are highlighted. More and more attention is paid to port development trend. Therefore, it is very important to establish a model to forecast the development trend of the port container throughput. This paper quantified the factors affecting container throughput such as economy and foreign trade, and predicted the container throughput of ports in China. In this paper, a multi-factor dynamic model is constructed, which considers macroeconomic growth, foreign trade import and export volume, containerization rate, single container weight, empty and heavy container ratio and other factors. With the data of 2020 as the benchmark, it is comprehensively predicted that by 2025. China's port container throughput will reach 320 million TEU. The container throughput growth will continue to decline. The average annual growth will be 4.0% in the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Further, this model can be used to predict the development trend of port container in 2050. At the same time, the development peak of port container throughput in China can also be analyzed. This conclusion can provide a basis for government departments and enterprises to make decisions. © 2022 SPIE