Modeling Incorporating the Severity-Reducing Long-term Immunity: Higher Viral Transmission Paradoxically Reduces Severe COVID-19 During Endemic Transition.
Immune Netw
; 22(3): e23, 2022 Jun.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1924453
ABSTRACT
Natural infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 or vaccination induces virus-specific immunity protecting hosts from infection and severe disease. While the infection-preventing immunity gradually declines, the severity-reducing immunity is relatively well preserved. Here, based on the different longevity of these distinct immunities, we develop a mathematical model to estimate courses of endemic transition of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our analysis demonstrates that high viral transmission unexpectedly reduces the rates of progression to severe COVID-19 during the course of endemic transition despite increased numbers of infection cases. Our study also shows that high viral transmission amongst populations with high vaccination coverages paradoxically accelerates the endemic transition of COVID-19 with reduced numbers of severe cases. These results provide critical insights for driving public health policies in the era of 'living with COVID-19.'
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Topics:
Long Covid
/
Vaccines
Language:
English
Journal:
Immune Netw
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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