Economic growth in the Central East European Union and the Western Balkan countries in the course of Stability and Growth Pact and COVID-19 *

ABSTRACT

This research aims to provide an empirical assessment of the relationship between fiscal policy sustainability factors, like fiscal deficit and economic growth in the Western Balkan countries and East European Union Countries, using panel-level data for the yearly time span from 2000-2021. The empirical model provides the impact of fiscal deficit, alongside other control variables like inflation, schooling, total investments, trade openness, and output gap on economic growth in the selected group of countries. For the purpose of research, we employed Static and dynamic panel estimation techniques like Fixed Effects with Driscol and Kraay standard errors and system GMM. The findings confirm that fiscal deficit has significantly affected the growth level in both groups of countries. In addition, when the fiscal deficit has interacted with the COVID-19 dummy, it appears as a growth-enhancing factor. However, when the fiscal deficit interacts with the Eurozone debt crisis period, it becomes a growth-deteriorating factor. Other control variables like inflation, trade openness, total investments, and the output gap are found important factors in explaining the growth performance of the Central East European and Western Balkan countries.AlternateOvo istraživanje ima za cilj utvrditi empirijsku procjenu odnosa izmeðu čimbenika održivosti fiskalne politike, poput fiskalnog deficita i gospodarskog rasta u zemljama zapadnog Balkana i zemljama Istočne Europske unije koristeći panel baze podataka za godišnji vremenski raspon od 2000. do 2021. godine. Empirijski model istražuje utjecaj fiskalnog deficita, uz ostale kontrolne varijable poput inflacije, školovanja, ukupnih ulaganja, otvorenosti trgovine i proizvodnog jaza na gospodarski rast u odabranoj skupini zemalja. Za potrebe istraživanja koristili smo statičku i dinamičku panel procjenu tehnike poput fiksnih učinaka s Driscol i Kraay standardnim greškama i sustav GMM. Nalazi potvrðuju da je fiskalni deficit značajno utjecao na razinu rasta u obje skupine zemalja. Osim toga, kada se fiskalne varijable dovedu u interakciju s COVID-19 dummy varijablama, fiskalni deficit rezultira značajnim i pozitivnim učinkom na gospodarski rast. Meðutim, kada je fiskalni deficit u interakciji s razdobljem dužničke krize u Euro-zoni, on postaje čimbenik koji pogoršava rast. Ostale kontrolne varijable poput inflacije, otvorenosti trgovine, ukupnih ulaganja i proizvodnog jaza smatraju se važnim čimbenicima u objašnjavanju uspješnost rasta zemalja srednje i istočne Europe i zapadnog Balkana.