COVID-19-induced excess mortality in Italy during the Omicron wave.

ABSTRACT

Background: The existing literature estimates a significantly reduced odds of hospitalisation and death among individuals. However, though less severe than other variants, the Omicron variant may still lead to excess mortality compared to pre-pandemic years. Methods: A generalized linear mixed model is introduced to model weekly mortality from 2011 to 2019, taking into account seasonal patterns and year-specific trends. Based on the 2019 year-specific conditional best linear unbiased predictions, excess of mortality is estimated. Results: In Italy, 14 and 11 regions suffered from relevant excess mortality in January and February, respectively. However, the situation is far from being as critical as during previous waves. Conclusions: We can conclude that no matter which variant (or multiple inter-variant recombination) we are facing, excess mortality will appear in correspondence of any incidence peak.