Real-time forecasting of the COVID 19 using fuzzy grey Markov: a different approach in decision-making

ABSTRACT

The ongoing epidemic SARS-CoV-2 named Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) is highly infectious and subsequently spread all over the world affecting millions of people. Humans have never seen such a deadly disease so far, and as there is no specific drug or vaccination, the mortality rate of the disease has been increasing exponentially. This current situation exacerbated people’s restlessness and fear. Because of this pandemic, the world is travelling on a different path. This world has recovered from many disasters, but this is entirely a different situation. Today’s world is struggling in many ways to get rid of this disease. On the other hand, the number of people recovering from this disease gives us comfort. Yet, we have to take urgent precautionary measures to control this disease in all possible ways. Therefore, forecasting is one of the ways to take the necessary precautionary measures. In this paper, using fuzzy–grey–Markov model, we predict the number of affected and recovered patient count, death count using real-time data in different approaches and compared with the real data. The study concludes with important recommendations for the Indian government to manage the COVID 19 critical situation in advance.