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Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories.
Ge, Yong; Zhang, Wen-Bin; Wu, Xilin; Ruktanonchai, Corrine W; Liu, Haiyan; Wang, Jianghao; Song, Yongze; Liu, Mengxiao; Yan, Wei; Yang, Juan; Cleary, Eimear; Qader, Sarchil H; Atuhaire, Fatumah; Ruktanonchai, Nick W; Tatem, Andrew J; Lai, Shengjie.
  • Ge Y; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. gey@lreis.ac.cn.
  • Zhang WB; College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. gey@lreis.ac.cn.
  • Wu X; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Ruktanonchai CW; College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Liu H; Lancaster Environment Center, Faculty of Science and Technology, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
  • Wang J; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Song Y; College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Liu M; Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
  • Yan W; Marine Data Center, South Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China.
  • Yang J; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Cleary E; College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Qader SH; School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.
  • Atuhaire F; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Ruktanonchai NW; College of Resources and Environment, University of Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Tatem AJ; Respiratory Medicine Department, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing, China.
  • Lai S; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 3106, 2022 06 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1931406
ABSTRACT
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval 42-62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-30897-1

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-30897-1