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Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis.
O'Donoghue, Cathal; Sologon, Denisa M; Kyzyma, Iryna; McHale, John.
  • O'Donoghue C; National University of Ireland Galway.
  • Sologon DM; Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research.
  • Kyzyma I; Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research.
  • McHale J; National University of Ireland Galway.
Fisc Stud ; 41(2): 321-336, 2020 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1932222
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 emergency has had a dramatic impact on market incomes and income-support policies. The lack of timely available data constrains the estimation of the scale and direction of recent changes in the income distribution, which in turn constrains policymakers seeking to monitor such developments. We overcome the lack of data by proposing a dynamic calibrated microsimulation approach to generate counterfactual income distributions as a function of more timely external data than are available in dated income surveys. We combine nowcasting methods using publicly available data and a household income generation model to perform the first calibrated simulation based upon actual data, aiming to assess the distributional implications of the COVID-19 crisis in Ireland. Overall, we find that the crisis had an equalizing real-time effect for both gross and disposable incomes, notwithstanding the significant hardship experienced by many households.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Language: English Journal: Fisc Stud Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Language: English Journal: Fisc Stud Year: 2020 Document Type: Article