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A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand.
Briones, Jamaica; Wang, Yi; Prawjaeng, Juthamas; Wee, Hwee Lin; Kairu, Angela; Orangi, Stacey; Barasa, Edwine; Teerawattananon, Yot.
  • Briones J; Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
  • Wang Y; Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
  • Prawjaeng J; Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand.
  • Wee HL; Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
  • Kairu A; Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
  • Orangi S; Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
  • Barasa E; Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
  • Teerawattananon Y; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Int J Public Health ; 67: 1604854, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1933949
ABSTRACT

Objective:

To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand.

Methods:

We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The change in GDP due to NPIs was derived by multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models.

Results:

An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, while both social distancing and border closure negatively correlated with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the decline in GDP. Thai border closure had a greater decline in GDP than social distancing; Kenya exhibited the same trends; Singapore had the opposite trend.

Conclusion:

We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach may be applicable in other settings.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Retrospective Studies Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa / Asia Language: English Journal: Int J Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Ijph.2022.1604854

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Retrospective Studies Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa / Asia Language: English Journal: Int J Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Ijph.2022.1604854