Modeling the Potential Impact of Remdesivir Treatment for Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia on Healthcare Resource Use and Direct Hospital Costs: A Hypothetical Study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide. Saudi Arabia was significantly impacted by COVID-19. In March 2021, 381,000 cases were reported with 6539 deaths. This study attempts to quantify the impact of remdesivir on healthcare costs in Saudi Arabia, in terms of intensive care unit admissions, mechanical ventilation, and death prevention. METHODS: A forecasting model was designed to estimate the impact of remdesivir on the capacity of intensive care units and healthcare costs with patients requiring low flow oxygen therapy. The forecasting model was applied in the Saudi context with a 20-week projection between 1 February and 14 June, 2021. Model inputs were collected from published global and Saudi literature, available forecasting resources, and expert opinions. Three scenarios were assumed the effective pandemic infection rate (Rt) remains at 1, the Rt increases up to 1.2, and the Rt declines from 1 to 0.8 over the study period. RESULTS: The model estimated that the use of remdesivir in hospitalized patients, in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, could prevent between 1520 and 3549 patient transfers to intensive care units and mechanical ventilation, prevent between 815 and 1582 deaths, and make potential cost savings between $US154 million and $US377 million owing to the reduction in intensive care unit capacity, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment with remdesivir may improve patient outcomes and reduce the burden on healthcare resources during this pandemic.