Forecasting in the absence of precedent
Journal of Economic Surveys
; 2022.
Article
in English
| Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1937966
ABSTRACT
We survey approaches to macroeconomic forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the unprecedented nature of the episode, there was greater dependence on information outside the econometric model, captured through either adjustments to the model or additional data. The transparency and flexibility of assumptions were especially important for interpreting real-time forecasts and updating forecasts as new data were observed. We revisit these themes with a time-varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression (VAR), which attributes the large jumps primarily to increased volatility rather than changes in the type or propagation of shocks.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
Web of Science
Language:
English
Journal:
Journal of Economic Surveys
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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