The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 119(31): e2204336119, 2022 08 02.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1947765
ABSTRACT
The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Immunogenicity, Vaccine
/
COVID-19 Vaccines
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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