Modeling of the Small-Scale Outbreak of COVID-19.
Front Public Health
; 10: 907814, 2022.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1952865
ABSTRACT
With the improvement of treatment and prevention methods, many countries have the pandemic under control. Different from the globally large-scale outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, now the outbreak in these countries shows new characteristics, which calls for an effective epidemic model to describe the transmission dynamics. Meeting this need, first, we extensively investigate the small-scale outbreaks in different provinces of China and use classic compartmental models, which have been widely used in predictions, to forecast the outbreaks. Additionally, we further propose a new version of cellular automata with a time matrix, to simulate outbreaks. Finally, the experimental results show that the proposed cellular automata could effectively simulate the small-scale outbreak of COVID-19, which provides insights into the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China and help countries with small-scale outbreaks to determine and implement effective intervention measures. The countries with relatively small populations will also get useful information about the epidemic from our research.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Front Public Health
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Fpubh.2022.907814
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