Time-varying pure contagion effect between energy and nonenergy commodity markets

ABSTRACT

This paper combines the Kalman filtering technique and the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility model to explore pure contagion effects between energy and nonenergy (i.e., industrial metals, precious metals, and agricultural) commodity markets. Empirical results show the significant pure contagion effects between energy and industrial metals markets in most periods, while pure contagion effects between energy and precious metals and agricultural markets occur only in a few specific periods. Comparing the level of pure contagion effects between different commodity markets, energy is still the main price transmitter. In addition, with the acceleration of the global commodity market financialization process, the frequency and harm of pure contagion effects are gradually increasing. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic is emerging as another major crisis after the global financial crisis, exacerbating the pure contagion effects between energy and precious metals and agricultural markets. © 2022 Wiley Periodicals LLC.