Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England.
Nat Commun
; 13(1): 4375, 2022 07 28.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1960372
ABSTRACT
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England's Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the 'new normal'.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Epidemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-022-32096-4
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