Impact of the Coming-of-Age Day and ceremony on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Japan: A natural-experimental study based on national surveillance data.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses
; 16(6): 1026-1032, 2022 11.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1961609
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Quantifying the impact on COVID-19 transmission from a single event has been difficult due to the virus transmission dynamics, such as lag from exposure to reported infection, non-linearity arising from the person-to-person transmission, and the modifying effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions over time. To address these issues, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 transmission risk of social events focusing on the Japanese Coming-of-Age Day and Coming-of-Age ceremony in which "new adults" practice risky behavior on that particular day.METHODS:
Using national surveillance data in Japan in 2021 and 2022, we conducted difference-in-differences regression against COVID-19 incidences by setting "new adults" cases as the treatment group and the cases 1 year younger or older than these "new adults" as the control group. In addition, we employed a triple differences approach to estimate the risk of holding the Coming-Age ceremony by using a binary variable regarding the presence or absence of the ceremony in each municipality.RESULTS:
We estimated the relative risks (RRs) of the Coming-of-Age Day as 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.57) in 2021 and 3.22 (95% CI 2.68-3.86) in 2022. The RR of the Coming-of-Age ceremony was also large, estimated as 2.83 (1.81-4.43) in 2022.CONCLUSIONS:
When planning large social events, it is important to be aware of the unique risks associated with these gatherings, along with effective public health messages to best communicate these risks.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Adult
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Influenza Other Respir Viruses
Journal subject:
Virology
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Irv.13027
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