Integrating Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Methods in Analyzing the Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemics in Davao City, Mindanao Island, Philippines.

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a public health crisis in the Philippines and the attention of national and local health authorities is focused on managing the fluctuating COVID-19 cases. This study presents a method that integrates risk management tools into health care decision-making processes to enhance the understanding and utilization of risk-based thinking in public health decision making. The risk assessment consists of the identification of the key risk factors of the COVID-19 contagion via bow-tie diagrams. Second, the safety controls for each risk factor relevant to the Davao City context are taken into account and are identified as barriers in the bow-tie. After which, the prioritization of the identified COVID-19 risks, as well as the effectiveness of the proposed interventions, is performed using the analytic hierarchy process. Consequently, the dynamics of COVID-19 management initiatives were explored using these priorities and a system of ordinary differential equations. Our results show that reducing the number of COVID-19 fatalities should be the top priority of the health authorities. In turn, we predict that the COVID-19 contagion can be controlled and eliminated in Davao city in three-month time after prioritizing the fatalities. In order to reduce the COVID-19 fatalities, health authorities should ensure an adequate number of COVID-ready ICU facilities. The general public, on the other hand, should follow medical and science-based advice and suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients should strictly follow isolation protocols. Overall, an informed decision-making is necessary to avoid the unwanted consequences of an uncontrolled contagion.