Survival Analysis of COVID-19 Patients in the Philippines Using Kaplan-Meier Estimation in Multiple Decrements

ABSTRACT

This study presents the recovery patterns of COVID-19 patients in the Philippines using survival analysis in the multiple decrement setting. A total of 152,203 patients during the period January to December 2021 were included in the study. Data processing using Python and exploratory data analysis were employed. Probabilities were obtained using basic actuarial principles on two decrements recovery and death. Kaplan-Meier estimation was then applied to obtain estimates of the survival function. The average length of treatment before recovery and death was also obtained. Results showed that older patients have higher risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to younger patients. While infection is higher among female population, the risk of death is higher among male patients. Based on the survival rates, the probabilities of recovery are highest during the 3rd week from onset of symptoms and the average length of treatment before recovery is determined to be 6 days. © 2022 ACM.