Identifying the changing age distribution of opioid-related mortality with high-frequency data.
PLoS One
; 17(4): e0265509, 2022.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1968853
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Opioid-related mortality continues to rise across North America, and mortality rates have been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study sought to provide an updated picture of trends of opioid-related mortality for Ontario, Canada between January 2003 and December 2020, in relation to age and sex.METHODS:
Using mortality data from the Office of the Chief Coroner for Ontario, we applied Bayesian Poisson regression to model age/sex mortality per 100,000 person-years, including random walks to flexibly capture age and time effects. Models were also used to explore how trends might continue into 2022, considering both pre- and post-COVID-19 courses.RESULTS:
From 2003 to 2020, there were 11,633 opioid-related deaths in Ontario. A shift in the age distribution of mortality was observed, with the greatest mortality rates now among younger individuals. In 2003, mortality rates reached maximums at 5.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% credible interval 4.0-7.6) for males around age 44 and 2.2 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 1.5-3.2) for females around age 51. As of 2020, rates have reached maximums at 67.2 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 55.3-81.5) for males around age 35 and 16.8 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 12.8-22.0) for females around age 37. Our models estimate that opioid-related mortality among the younger population will continue to grow, and that current conditions could lead to male mortality rates that are more than quadruple those of pre-pandemic estimations.CONCLUSIONS:
This analysis may inform a refocusing of public health strategy for reducing rising rates of opioid-related mortality, including effectively reaching both older and younger males, as well as young females, with health and social supports such as treatment and harm reduction measures.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
/
Analgesics, Opioid
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Long Covid
Limits:
Adult
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS One
Journal subject:
Science
/
Medicine
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pone.0265509
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