Early phylogenetic estimate of the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2.
J Med Virol
; 92(6): 675-679, 2020 06.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1969
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
To reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of the 2019 novel-coronavirus recently causing an outbreak in Wuhan, China, 52 SARS-CoV-2 genomes available on 4 February 2020 at Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data were analyzed. The two models used to estimate the reproduction number (coalescent-based exponential growth and a birth-death skyline method) indicated an estimated mean evolutionary rate of 7.8 × 10-4 subs/site/year (range, 1.1 × 10-4 -15 × 10-4 ) and a mean tMRCA of the tree root of 73 days. The estimated R value was 2.6 (range, 2.1-5.1), and increased from 0.8 to 2.4 in December 2019. The estimated mean doubling time of the epidemic was between 3.6 and 4.1 days. This study proves the usefulness of phylogeny in supporting the surveillance of emerging new infections even as the epidemic is growing.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Models, Statistical
/
Genome, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Betacoronavirus
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
J Med Virol
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Jmv.25723
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