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Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020.
Jit, Mark; Jombart, Thibaut; Nightingale, Emily S; Endo, Akira; Abbott, Sam; Edmunds, W John.
  • Jit M; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
  • Jombart T; School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
  • Nightingale ES; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
  • Endo A; United Kingdom Public Health Rapid Support Team, London, United Kingdom.
  • Abbott S; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
  • Edmunds WJ; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Euro Surveill ; 25(18)2020 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-196998
ABSTRACT
An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI) 78,000-173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI 220-319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI 362,000-797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Patient Admission / Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Coronavirus / Disease Notification / Critical Care / Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Female / Humans / Male Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Patient Admission / Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Coronavirus / Disease Notification / Critical Care / Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Female / Humans / Male Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632