Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).
J Formos Med Assoc
; 120 Suppl 1: S57-S68, 2021 Jun.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1972177
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The COVID-19 outbreaks associated with mass religious gatherings which have the potential of invoking epidemics at large scale have been a great concern. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of outbreak in mass religious gathering and further to assess the preparedness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in this context.METHODS:
The risk of COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was evaluated by using secondary COVID-19 cases and reproductive numbers. The preparedness of a series of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was then assessed by using a density-dependent model. This approach was first illustrated by the Mazu Pilgrimage in Taiwan and validated by using the COVID-19 outbreak in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus (SCJ) religious gathering in South Korea.RESULTS:
Through the strict implementation of 80% NPIs in the Mazu Pilgrimage, the number of secondary cases can be substantially reduced from 1508 (95% CI 900-2176) to 294 (95% CI 169-420) with the reproductive number (R) significantly below one (0.54, 95% CI 0.31-0.78), indicating an effective containment of outbreak. The expected number of secondary COVID-19 cases in the SCJ gathering was estimated as 232 (basic reproductive number (R0) = 6.02) and 579 (R0 = 2.50) for the first and second outbreak, respectively, with a total expected cases (833) close to the observed data on high infection of COVID-19 cases (887, R0 = 3.00).CONCLUSION:
We provided the evidence on the preparedness of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in the context of mass religious gathering by using a density-dependent model.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Crowding
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
Disease Outbreaks
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J Formos Med Assoc
Journal subject:
Medicine
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.jfma.2021.04.017
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