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Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).
Hsu, Chen-Yang; Chen, Ya-Mei; Su, Chiu-Wen; Ku, Mei-Sheng; Kim, Yeol; Jensen, Tim; Luh, Dih-Ling.
  • Hsu CY; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Daichung Hospital, Miaoli, Taiwan.
  • Chen YM; Institute of Health Policy and Management, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taiwan.
  • Su CW; Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Ku MS; Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Kim Y; National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, South Korea.
  • Jensen T; Department of Teaching of the Study of Religions, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark.
  • Luh DL; Department of Public Health, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan. Electronic address: luh@csmu.edu.tw.
J Formos Med Assoc ; 120 Suppl 1: S57-S68, 2021 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1972177
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The COVID-19 outbreaks associated with mass religious gatherings which have the potential of invoking epidemics at large scale have been a great concern. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of outbreak in mass religious gathering and further to assess the preparedness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in this context.

METHODS:

The risk of COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was evaluated by using secondary COVID-19 cases and reproductive numbers. The preparedness of a series of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was then assessed by using a density-dependent model. This approach was first illustrated by the Mazu Pilgrimage in Taiwan and validated by using the COVID-19 outbreak in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus (SCJ) religious gathering in South Korea.

RESULTS:

Through the strict implementation of 80% NPIs in the Mazu Pilgrimage, the number of secondary cases can be substantially reduced from 1508 (95% CI 900-2176) to 294 (95% CI 169-420) with the reproductive number (R) significantly below one (0.54, 95% CI 0.31-0.78), indicating an effective containment of outbreak. The expected number of secondary COVID-19 cases in the SCJ gathering was estimated as 232 (basic reproductive number (R0) = 6.02) and 579 (R0 = 2.50) for the first and second outbreak, respectively, with a total expected cases (833) close to the observed data on high infection of COVID-19 cases (887, R0 = 3.00).

CONCLUSION:

We provided the evidence on the preparedness of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in the context of mass religious gathering by using a density-dependent model.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Crowding / Communicable Disease Control / Disease Outbreaks / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: J Formos Med Assoc Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.jfma.2021.04.017

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Crowding / Communicable Disease Control / Disease Outbreaks / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: J Formos Med Assoc Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.jfma.2021.04.017