A data-validated temporary immunity model of COVID-19 spread in Michigan.
Math Biosci Eng
; 19(10): 10122-10142, 2022 07 18.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1974985
ABSTRACT
We introduce a distributed-delay differential equation disease spread model for COVID-19 spread. The model explicitly incorporates the population's time-dependent vaccine uptake and incorporates a gamma-distributed temporary immunity period for both vaccination and previous infection. We validate the model on COVID-19 cases and deaths data from the state of Michigan and use the calibrated model to forecast the spread and impact of the disease under a variety of realistic booster vaccine strategies. The model suggests that the mean immunity duration for individuals after vaccination is 350 days and after a prior infection is 242 days. Simulations suggest that both high population-wide adherence to vaccination mandates and a more-than-annually frequency of booster doses will be required to contain outbreaks in the future.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Vaccines
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Math Biosci Eng
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Mbe.2022474
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