Mathematical Statistical Study of the behavior of COVID-19 in the province of Cienfuegos. Cuba

ABSTRACT

Background: The world and Cuba in the last two years have been affected by Covid-19. It is of vital importance for Public Health to have statistical studies of infected cases, prognostic equations of the same and possible peaks of the disease, with a view to applying the appropriate measures to combat the pandemic. Objective: The objective of the work is to carry out statistical studies on the data of confirmed cases in the province of Cienfuegos, in the period from March 2020 to August 2021. Methods: The Applied Mathematics Research Group of the University of Cienfuegos carried out a statistical study of the databases of patients confirmed with Covid-19, in the 8 municipalities of the province of Cienfuegos, from March 2020 to August 2021. applied descriptive statistics on the accumulated confirmed cases, age, sex, doses of vaccines received and the probable dates of the highest pandemic peak. The Gompertz, Weibull and Loglogistic logistic population growth models were used to obtain forecast equations for confirmed cases. The basic reproduction numbers Ro and effective Rt were calculated. Results: Knowledge of the adjustment equations in the municipalities of the province of Cienfuegos allows health and government authorities to design strategies to reduce effective reproduction and their monitoring increases the effectiveness of the measures taken. There is an adequacy of the models presented with respect to the predicted and real values, which allows their reliability for the forecasts made. Conclusions:The logistic, Weibull and Gompertz population growth models used to obtain forecast equations in the province of Cienfuegos of confirmed cases of COVID-19, allow future monitoring, control and projection of the behavior of the pandemic according to significant indicators in Cienfuegos.