Modelling international sovereign risk information spillovers: A multilayer network approach

ABSTRACT

Applying the TVP-VAR model, we creatively construct multilayer information spillover networks containing return spillover layer, volatility spillover layer and extreme risk spillover layer among 23 countries in the G20 to explore international sovereign risk spillovers. From the perspective of system-level and country-level measures, this article explores the topological structures of static and dynamic multilayer networks. We observe that (i) at the system-level, multilayer measures containing uniqueness edge ratio and average edge overlap show each layer has unique network structures and spillover evolution behavior, especially for dynamic networks. Average connectedness strength shows volatility and extreme risk spillover layers are more sensitive to extreme events. Meanwhile, three layers have highly intertwined and interrelated relations. Notably, their spillovers all show a great upsurge during the crisis (financial and European debt crisis) and the COVID-19 pandemic period. (ii) At the country-level, average overlapping net-strength shows that countries’ roles are different during distinct periods. Multiplex participation coefficient on out-strength indicates we’ll focus on countries with highly heterogeneous connectedness among three layers during the stable period since their underestimated spillovers soar in extreme events or crises. Multilayer networks supply comprehensive information that cannot obtain by single-layer.