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A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia.
Sánchez, Cecilia A; Li, Hongying; Phelps, Kendra L; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Wang, Lin-Fa; Zhou, Peng; Shi, Zheng-Li; Olival, Kevin J; Daszak, Peter.
  • Sánchez CA; EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
  • Li H; EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
  • Phelps KL; EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
  • Zambrana-Torrelio C; Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA.
  • Wang LF; Programme in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.
  • Zhou P; Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China.
  • Shi ZL; Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China.
  • Olival KJ; EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
  • Daszak P; EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA. daszak@ecohealthalliance.org.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 4380, 2022 08 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1984384
ABSTRACT
Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI 65,351-67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Chiroptera / Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Animals / Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-31860-w

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Chiroptera / Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Animals / Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-31860-w