GEOECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES OF ENERGY TRANSITION. IMPLICATIONS FOR WORLD ECONOMY

ABSTRACT

The article deals with geoeconomic and geopolitical challenges for the further development of the world economy in the conditions of the energy transition designated by a number of countries of the world. The authors carried out a detailed analysis of the trends in the development of “green” energy in the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, identified the main directions of changes in the state energy policy of developed and developing countries. It is established that the accelerated and forced transition to renewable energy sources had a negative impact on the dynamics of economic development of a number of countries of the world. The authors make the assumption that the non-alternative and accelerated transition to “green” energy, actively promoted by developed countries (EU, USA and other OECD countries), together with a sharp decline in investment in traditional hydrocarbon energy sources, can lead to the formation of significant imbalances in the global economy, loss of predictability of the development of global and regional energy and energy markets. In addition, the authors pay special attention to the role of rare earth metals in the energy transition, whose markets are characterized by high monopolization in favor of China. Together with the global economic crisis, which was caused by the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the trends of the accelerated energy transition have significantly worsened the stability of the energy systems of many countries of the world. Taking into account these factors, the authors have analyzed the strategic consequences for states engaged in intensive decarbonization of their national economies and the fuel and energy complex. At the same time, the authors noted that the EU’s long-term plans to increase the share of hydrogen energy in the energy balance open up new prospects for the Russian Federation, which has extensive opportunities for the production and export of hydrogen. The importance of the development of domestic technologies in the field of hydrogen energy was noted. In addition, taking into account the development trends of the energy transition, the importance of the development of the rare earth industry in the Russian Federation to reduce the impact of imports of rare earth elements from China was noted. © 2022, Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.