The effectiveness of COVID-19 testing and contact tracing in a US city.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 119(34): e2200652119, 2022 08 23.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1991763
ABSTRACT
Although testing, contact tracing, and case isolation programs can mitigate COVID-19 transmission and allow the relaxation of social distancing measures, few countries worldwide have succeeded in scaling such efforts to levels that suppress spread. The efficacy of test-trace-isolate likely depends on the speed and extent of follow-up and the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Here, we use a granular model of COVID-19 transmission to estimate the public health impacts of test-trace-isolate programs across a range of programmatic and epidemiological scenarios, based on testing and contact tracing data collected on a university campus and surrounding community in Austin, TX, between October 1, 2020, and January 1, 2021. The median time between specimen collection from a symptomatic case and quarantine of a traced contact was 2 days (interquartile range [IQR] 2 to 3) on campus and 5 days (IQR 3 to 8) in the community. Assuming a reproduction number of 1.2, we found that detection of 40% of all symptomatic cases followed by isolation is expected to avert 39% (IQR 30% to 45%) of COVID-19 cases. Contact tracing is expected to increase the cases averted to 53% (IQR 42% to 58%) or 40% (32% to 47%), assuming the 2- and 5-day delays estimated on campus and in the community, respectively. In a tracing-accelerated scenario, in which 75% of contacts are notified the day after specimen collection, cases averted increase to 68% (IQR 55% to 72%). An accelerated contact tracing program leveraging rapid testing and electronic reporting of test results can significantly curtail local COVID-19 transmission.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Contact Tracing
/
COVID-19 Testing
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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