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Alternative COVID-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Woodhouse, M J; Aspinall, W P; Sparks, R S J; Brooks-Pollock, E; Relton, C.
  • Woodhouse MJ; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK.
  • Aspinall WP; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK.
  • Sparks RSJ; Aspinall and Associates, Tisbury SP3 6HF, UK.
  • Brooks-Pollock E; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK.
  • Relton C; Bristol Veterinary School, University of Bristol, Churchill Building, Langford, Bristol BS40 5DU, UK.
R Soc Open Sci ; 9(8): 211985, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1992454
ABSTRACT
The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has impacted children's education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to periods of absence and classroom closures. We developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a school classroom that allows us to quantify projected infection patterns within primary school classrooms, and related uncertainties. Our approach is based on a contact model constructed using random networks, informed by structured expert judgement. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies in suppressing infection outbreaks and limiting pupil absence are considered. COVID-19 infections in primary schools in England in autumn 2020 were re-examined and the model was then used to estimate infection levels in autumn 2021, as the Delta variant was emerging and it was thought likely that school transmission would play a major role in an incipient new wave of the epidemic. Our results were in good agreement with available data. These findings indicate that testing-based surveillance is more effective than bubble quarantine, both for reducing transmission and avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine entails large numbers of absences, with only modest impact on classroom infections. However, maintaining reduced contact rates within the classroom can have a major benefit for managing COVID-19 in school settings.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Randomized controlled trials Topics: Variants Language: English Journal: R Soc Open Sci Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Rsos.211985

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Randomized controlled trials Topics: Variants Language: English Journal: R Soc Open Sci Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Rsos.211985