Transmission Dynamics and Optimal Control Strategy to Mitigate the Spread of Novel Coronavirus: The Case of Iran

ABSTRACT

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is currently considered a great challenge to the health of human society. In this study, since the COVID-19 vaccines are currently being developed, a vaccine allocation as an effective pharmaceutical strategy to immunize people against disease is being considered. To this end, a new extended SIR-type model including vaccination compartment and reinfection transmission to predict disease behavior in Iran has been formulated. The mathematical analysis of the model is investigated to verify that the proposed model is well-posed epidemiologically. The biological parameters are evaluated via a nonlinear least-square fitting approach. Finally, to investigate the impact of preventive pharmaceutical measures on flattening the curve of the COVID-19 incidence in Iran, the optimal control strategy is applied. The results of numerical simulations and the optimal control analysis illustrate that the combined implementation of time-dependent measures has a drastic impact on disease burden reduction. © 2022 IEEE.