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A Chess and Card Room-Induced COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Agent-Based Simulation in Yangzhou, China.
Shen, Shijing; Li, Wenning; Wei, Hua; Zhao, Lin; Ye, Runze; Ma, Ke; Xiao, Peng; Jia, Na; Zhou, Jieping; Cui, Xiaoming; Gong, Jianhua; Cao, Wuchun.
  • Shen S; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Li W; School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.
  • Wei H; National Engineering Research Center for Geoinformatics, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Zhao L; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Ye R; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Ma K; Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Xiao P; Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Jia N; Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
  • Zhou J; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Cui X; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Gong J; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Cao W; National Engineering Research Center for Geoinformatics, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Front Public Health ; 10: 915716, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1993878
ABSTRACT

Objective:

To evaluate epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak that resurged in Yangzhou and to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales.

Methods:

We collected personal information from 570 laboratory-confirmed cases in Yangzhou from 28 July to 26 August 2021, and built a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model and an agent-based model.

Results:

The SEIR model showed that for passengers from medium-high risk areas, pre-travel nucleic acid testing within 3 days could limit the total number of infected people in Yangzhou to 50; among elderly persons, a 60% increase in vaccination rates could reduce the estimated infections by 253. The agent-based model showed that when the population density of the chess and card room dropped by 40%, the number of infected people would decrease by 54 within 7 days. A ventilation increase in the chess and card room from 25 to 50% could reduce the total number of infections by 33 within 7 days; increasing the ventilation from 25 to 75% could reduce the total number of infections by 63 within 7 days.

Conclusions:

The SEIR model and agent-based model were used to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales successfully. It is possible to provide references for epidemic prevention and control work.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Aged / Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Front Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fpubh.2022.915716

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Aged / Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Front Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fpubh.2022.915716