Assessment and Prediction of Grain Production Considering Climate Change and Air Pollution in China
Sustainability
; 14(15):9088, 2022.
Article
in English
| ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1994157
ABSTRACT
This study examines the spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on grain production in China. This is achieved by establishing a spatial error model consisting of four indicators the climate, air pollution, economic behavior, and agricultural technology, covering 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2020. These indicators are used to validate the spatial impacts of climate change on grain production. Air pollution data are used as instrumental variables to address the causality between climate and grain production. The regression results show that First, climatic variables all have a non-linear “increasing then decreasing” effect on food production. Second, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 have a negative impact on grain production. Based on the model, changes in the climatic production potential of grain crops can be calculated, and the future spatial layout of climate production can also be predicted by using random forests. Studies have shown that the median value of China’s grain production potential is decreasing, and the low value is increasing.
Environmental Studies; climate change; food production; climatic production potential; random forest; spatial error model; Food supply; Grain; Agricultural production; Food security; Agricultural technology; Indicators; Provinces; Crops; Air pollution; Economic models; Economics; COVID-19; Agriculture; Precipitation; Sustainable development; Environmental impact; Wheat; Rice; Grain crops; Variables; Particulate matter; Interdisciplinary subjects; Sulfur dioxide; China
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
ProQuest Central
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Sustainability
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS