Infectious kinetics of novel Coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)

ABSTRACT

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-IQ) occurred as new pneumonia of unknown cause at the end of 2019 and outbroke in the next two months in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Scientific and effective understanding of epidemic development is essential for the prevention and control. In this paper, a segmented Logistic model was built to describe confirmed cases, deaths and cured cases of COVID-19 based on the official data from National and Local Health Commissions. It is estimated that the total number of confirmed cases nationwide will reach 81,370 to 102,800 and the total number of deaths will reach 3,177 to 3, 960. with final mortality rate of 3.9%. All confirmed cases nationwide (exclude deaths) were expected to be cured by May 7, 2020 under current medical conditions and diagnostic criteria. The model can fit and forecast the trend of COVID-19 epidemics at two stages and provide scientific basis for epidemic prevention and control.