THE VOLATILITY OF BROILER MEAT PRICES IN TRADITIONAL AND MODERN MARKETS BEFORE, AT THE BEGINNING OF, AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN JAMBI CITY

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to analyze the volatility of broiler meat prices before, in the beginning, and during the Covid-19 pandemic in traditional and modern markets in Jambi City and the forecast model. This study uses weekly time series data on broiler meat prices with the following periods a) before the Covid-19 pandemic, the period March 2019 to February 2020;b) the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic for the period March 2020 to August 2020;c) the Covid-19 pandemic period September 2020 to August 2021, sourced from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center. Data analysis was conducted using the coefficient of variation, ARIMA, ARCH, and GARCH. The price volatility of broiler meat in traditional markets is higher than in modern markets before, early, and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The highest price volatility occurred before the Covid-19 pandemic. The ARIMA model can predict the future price value of broiler meat in traditional and modern markets. The novelty of this research is the behavioral diversity and volatility of broiler meat prices before, in the beginning, and during the Covid-19 pandemic in traditional and modern markets in Jambi City. In addition, another novelty is the right forecast model to predict the future broiler meat prices in traditional and modern markets. © 2022 Science Press. All rights reserved.