The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variants.
Transp Policy (Oxf)
; 127: 22-30, 2022 Oct.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1996596
ABSTRACT
We investigate the impact of air travel mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission by tracing the announced arrival time of COVID-19 and its major variants in countries around the world. We find that air travel intensity to a country, "effective distance" as measured by international air traffic, is generally a significant predictor for the announced viral arrival time. The level of healthcare infrastructure in a country is less important at predicting the initial transmission and detection time of a virus. A policy variable, notably the percentage reduction of total inbound seats in response to a viral outbreak, is largely ineffective at delaying viral transmission and discovery time. These findings suggest that air network connectivity is a major contributor to the speed of viral transmission. However, government attempts to delay viral transmission by reducing air network connectivity after the virus is first discovered are largely ineffective.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Variants
Language:
English
Journal:
Transp Policy (Oxf)
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.tranpol.2022.08.009
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