Estimation of the Reproductive Number Trend of the Novel Coronavirus "COVID-19" in Southern Iran from July to November 2020.

ABSTRACT

Background: Effective measures to control COVID-19 should be based on an understanding of its epidemiological pattern and the evaluation of its prevalence in the community. This study aimed to examine the reproductive number (R) of COVID-19 and its trend in Fars Province in southern Iran. Methods: In this ecological study, the R trend was examined from July to November 2020. Data were collected from the daily reports of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences. R is the product of three components, namely the number of infection-producing contacts per unit time, the probability of transmission per contact, and the contagiousness period. Incidence and prevalence rates were used to calculate R. The R value was calculated in Microsoft Excel 2016. Results: The first and second peaks of COVID-19 were observed on July 6th and November 22nd, respectively. The median and mean of R were 1.42 and 1.41, respectively. The highest and lowest values of R were observed on October 20th (2.60) and September 1st (0.46), respectively. The values of R had a slightly decreasing trend in the second half of July and November than the first half. In the second half of August and September, an increasing trend was observed than the first half. There was not much change in the second half of October. Conclusion: The highest value of R was related to the dates when there was a higher probability of exposure to the virus, including public holidays and different occasions on which the probability of people's participation in ceremonies, communities, and gatherings was higher.