Modifiable and Non-Modifiable Factors Associated With Increased COVID-19 Related Mortality Among Dialysis Patients

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) face higher risk for severe outcomes from COVID-19 infection. Moreover, it is not well known to which extent potentially modifiable risk factors contribute to mortality risk. In this study, we investigated the incidence and risk factors for 30-day case-fatality of COVID-19 in haemodialysis patients treated in the European Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) Nephrocare network. METHOD In this historical cohort study, we included unvaccinated adult dialysis patients with a first documented SARS-CoV-2 infection between 1 February 2020 and 31 March 2021 (study period) registered in the European Clinical Database (EuCliD®). The first SARS-CoV-2 suspicion date for all documented infections was considered the index date for the analysis. Patients were followed for up to 30 days. Follow-up time was defined from the index date until the date of death, end of follow-up period or lost to follow-up, whichever occurred first. We ascertained patients’ characteristics in the 6-month period prior to index date. We used logistic regression and XGBoost to assess risk factors for 30-day mortality. RESULTS We included 9211 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for the study (Table 1). Age was 65.4 ± 13.7 years, dialysis vintage was 4.2 ± 3.7 years. In the follow up period, 1912 patients died within 30 days (20.8%, 95% confidence interval 19.9%–21.6%). Correlates of COVID-19 related mortality are summarized in Table 2. Several potentially modifiable factors were associated with increased risk of death patients on HD compared with online haemodiafiltration had shorter survival after presentation with COVID-19 as well as those who did not achieve the therapeutic targets for serum albumin, erythropoietin resistance index, protein catabolic rate, haemodynamic status, C-reactive protein, single-pool Kt/V, hydration status and serum sodium in the months before infection. The discrimination accuracy of prediction models developed with XGBoost was similar to that observed for main-effect logistic regression (AUC 0.69 and 0.71, respectively) suggesting that no major cross-interaction and non-linear effect could improve prediction accuracy. CONCLUSION We observed high 30-day COVID-19 related mortality among unvaccinated dialysis patients. Older patients, men and those with greater comorbidities had higher risk of death after COVID-19 infection. Derangement in potentially modifiable factors in the 6 months prior to COVID-19 infection was independently associated with increased mortality. Whether achievement of clinical therapeutic targets is associated with improved survival after COVID-19 infection is a matter of further research.