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Modeling COVID-19 effects on SDGs using system dynamics in Egypt.
Marzouk, Mohamed; Azab, Shimaa; Elshaboury, Nehal; Megahed, Alaa; Metawie, Mahmoud; Hawary, Mostafa El; Ghaith, Doaa; Bayoumi, AbdElMoniem.
  • Marzouk M; Structural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt. mmarzouk@cu.edu.eg.
  • Azab S; Environmental Planning and Development Center, Institute of National Planning (INP), Cairo, Egypt.
  • Elshaboury N; Construction and Project Management Research Institute, Housing and Building National Research Center, Giza, Egypt.
  • Megahed A; Integrated Engineering Design Management Program, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt.
  • Metawie M; Structural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt.
  • Hawary ME; NAMAA Consult, Road Asset Management Systems Expert, Giza, Egypt.
  • Ghaith D; Department of Clinical and Chemical Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt.
  • Bayoumi A; Department of Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 29(39): 59235-59246, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2000061
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant threat to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To address this challenge, a thorough examination of the pandemic's influence on four SDGs in Egypt is presented in a system dynamic model. The addressed goals are related to no poverty (SDG 1), zero hunger (SDG 2), decent work and economic growth (SDG 8), and climate action (SDG 13). The model is simulated over 35 years extending from 2015 to 2050. Furthermore, a web-based interactive learning environment is developed to analyze the interdependencies among public health activities and study the impacts of possible intervention countermeasures or prevention policies. Indicators including poverty line, food insecurity, gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are evaluated to track Egypt's performance in relation to SDGs 1, 2, 8, and 13. According to the simulation model, the poverty line will continue to decline until it reaches around 16% by 2050. According to the significant governmental efforts to follow its vision of 2030, Egypt can achieve a decreasing percentage of food insecurity, reaching 3% in 2030, and this percentage will continue to decrease until it reaches full sufficiency by 2050. The GDP growth rate will rise every year until it reaches 13.71% in 2050. With respect to climate, GHG emissions are predicted to fall to roughly 97 Mt CO2-equivalents by 2050. This approach revitalizes debates about the achievement of SDGs amid the crisis and acts as a powerful tool that aids decision-makers in identifying leverage points to avoid the long-term negative repercussions of the crisis on the economy, people, and environment.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Sustainable Development / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Journal subject: Environmental Health / Toxicology Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S11356-022-20019-1

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Sustainable Development / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Journal subject: Environmental Health / Toxicology Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S11356-022-20019-1