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Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era.
Barnard, Rosanna C; Davies, Nicholas G; Jit, Mark; Edmunds, W John.
  • Barnard RC; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. rosanna.barnard@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Davies NG; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. rosanna.barnard@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Jit M; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 4879, 2022 08 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2000887
ABSTRACT
England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Adult / Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-32404-y

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Adult / Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-32404-y