Regional Association between Mean Air Temperature and Case Numbers of Multiple SARS-CoV-2 Lineages throughout the Pandemic.

ABSTRACT

The association between mean air temperature and new SARS-CoV-2 case numbers throughout the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was investigated to identify whether diverse SARS-CoV-2 lineages may exhibit diverse environmental behaviors. The number of new COVID-19 daily cases in the province of Verona was obtained from the Veneto Regional Healthcare Service, whilst the mean daily air temperature during the same period was retrieved from the Regional Agency for Ambient Prevention and Protection of Veneto. A significant inverse correlation was found between new COVID-19 daily cases and mean air temperature in Verona up to Omicron BA.1/BA.2 predominance (correlation coefficients between -0.79 and -0.41). The correlation then became positive when the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 lineages were prevalent (r = 0.32). When the median value (and interquartile range; IQR) of new COVID-19 daily cases recorded during the warmer period of the year in Verona (June-July) was compared across the three years of the pandemic, a gradual increase could be seen over time, from 1 (IQR, 0-2) in 2020, to 22 (IQR, 11-113) in 2021, up to 890 (IQR, 343-1345) in 2022. These results suggest that measures for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection should not be completely abandoned during the warmer periods of the year.