Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia.
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 15073, 2022 09 05.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2008306
ABSTRACT
While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating virus concentration and cumulative incidence for full contagion waves was developed. The model was then used for short-term forecasting and compared to a local linear model. Both scenarios were tested using a dataset composed of samples from 32 wastewater treatment plants and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data covering the corresponding geographical areas during a 7-month period, including two contagion waves. A population-averaged dataset was also developed to model and predict the incidence over the full geography. Overall, the mathematical model based on wastewater data showed a good correlation with cumulative cases and allowed us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 incidence in one week, which is of special relevance in situations where the epidemiological monitoring system cannot be fully implemented.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-022-18518-9
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