Impacts of COVID-19-Related Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Mobility and Accidents in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

Transport plays a major role in spreading contagious diseases such as COVID-19 by facilitating social contacts. The standard response to fighting COVID-19 in most countries has been imposing a lockdown—including on the transport sector—to slow down the spread. Though the Government of Bangladesh also imposed a lockdown quite early, it was forced to relax the lockdown for economic reasons. This motivates this study to assess the interaction between various non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) policies and transport sector outcomes, such as mobility and accidents, in Bangladesh. The study explores the effect of NPIs on both intra- and inter-regional mobility. Intra-regional mobility is captured using Google mobility reports which provide information about the number of visitors at different activity locations. Inter-regional, or long-distance, mobility is captured using vehicle count information from toll booths on a major bridge. Modeling shows that, in most cases, the policy interventions had the desired impact on people’s mobility patterns. Closure of education institutes, offices, public transport, and shopping malls reduced mobility at most locations. The closure of garment factories reduced mobility for work and at transit stations only. Mobility was increased at all places except at residential locations, after the wearing of masks was made mandatory. Reduced traffic because of policy interventions resulted in a lower number of accidents (crashes) and related fatalities. However, mobility-normalized crashes and fatalities increased nationally. The outcomes of the study are especially useful in understanding the differential impacts of various policy measures on transport, and thus would help future evidence-based decision-making.