The Technologies and International Politics of Genetic Warfare: SSQ

ABSTRACT

This article considers the prospect and potential of genetic warfare. Drawing on expert interviews and fieldwork, it begins by detailing how the recent and anticipated innovations in synthetic biology, artificial intelligence, and nanotechnology solve the weaponization, delivery, and precision problems that had previously made biological weapons impractical. The article then considers how states and non-state actors may develop and use genetic weapons, with a focus on the problem of secrecy. Underlying whether to reveal or conceal genetic war capability is a trade-off between strategic surprise and deterrence. Actors requiring deterrence are likely to reveal genetic military capability. With the only rivaling source of deterrence being nuclear weapons, nonnuclear states and non-state actors are more likely to make public their genetic weapons capability than nuclear states. The question of whether to use genetic weapons covertly or openly also entails a trade-off. Covert use confers strategic and tactical benefits, whereas the benefits of unrestricted use are primarily psychological. Terroristic, genocidal, and apocalyptic regimes and non-state actors may use genetic weapons openly, but most would likely opt for covert genetic warfare.