Climate change and Pacific food systems: decision-making for transformational change - proof-of-concept - final report

ABSTRACT

Many studies have been conducted on Pacific food crops and fisheries, their vulnerability to climate change, and resilience-building strategies. However, there is a lack of decision-making tools that integrate this information and enable stakeholders to anticipate rapid climate change and uncertainty, and to adapt and transform food systems accordingly. To meet this challenge, in 2019-2020 the Australian Centre for International Agriculture Research (ACIAR) and New Zealand's (NZ) Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) funded a proof-of-concept Small Research Activity (SRA). The SRA sought to develop innovative participatory decision-making tools that can map transformational options at a regional level to allow exploration and planning for future food systems. These aimed to integrate up-to-date climate projections with scientific and local knowledge of food systems, as well as determine how existing adaptation pathways planning methods could be modified for application in a food systems context, which has not been done to date. The SRA established a Steering Committee to guide the process, and a Science Committee of Australian and NZ food system researchers to design and test a conceptual approach. A case study was selected in Malaita Province, the Solomon Islands, following discussions with the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, and the Australian and NZ High Commissions in Honiara. Central and West Kwara'ae Constituencies and Langalanga Ward, which surround the provincial capital of Auki, formed the case study area. While the primary purpose of the SRA was to develop pathways planning methods suitable for a food systems context, the use of a case study helped to ground this in a practical context and test the attractiveness of these approaches with key decision-makers and stakeholders in one or more Pacific Island Countries. In September 2019 - March 2020 the science team collated available downscaled climate projections, sea level rise, cyclone risk and population projection data for the case study, plus an inventory of food and commodities produced in the area. The impact of a 'business as usual' scenario of climate change and population growth was modelled using the Assets Drivers Wellbeing Interaction Matrix (ADWIM), looking forward to both 2030 and 2050. A conceptual approach to planning with these drivers and their impacts in mind was designed based on the 'adaptation pathways' method, which plans for an uncertain future by identifying impacts and assessing and sequencing response options and actions over time. A two day adaptation pathways workshop to provide key decision-makers with an initial introduction to the approach was to be held in Auki in March 2020. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there were multiple delays and a fully re-designed workshop was finally conducted in November 2020 with remote participation by the science team, and facilitation by local experts. The workshop process was co-designed with the facilitators, and participants were invited from local farmer groups, the Auki Market Vendors Association, women and youth groups, NGOs and provincial and national government departments. The climate and population projection information, pest and disease, alternative production methods and ADWIM modelling results were presented as part of a decision-into-practice learning cycle. Participants described the current food system, assessed drivers of change, their impacts in 2030 and 2050, agreed an aspirational vision for the food system in 2050, and then began to formulate adaptation pathways to reach the vision by re-designing the food system. Instead of focusing on production alone, the pathways approach addressed many aspects of the food system, including resource conservation, marketing, consumption, waste management, education, land disputes and governance.